Publications

Geneva Management Group

Q4 2017 Market Comment With 2017 already behind us, the final quarter saw the spotlight shift away from central bank headlines toward geopolitical matters mentioned in our very first comment of the year. The key question is: how long will this last? At the dawn of 2018, all investment banks communicate their outlooks and raise the obvious worries concerning higher US interest rates and the nearing end of quantitative easing measures from the ECB and the BoJ. Will it trigger the end of the goldilocks economy? Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q3 2017 Market Comment Since the 2008 crisis, excess liquidity provided by central banks has been a blessing to all financial and investment market actors. Restoring confidence was crucial in stopping the collapse of financial systems and has been a key support for economies trying to recover, while simultaneously giving time to countries to manage their unbalanced budgets. In recent years, a euphoric side effect has become apparent. Brexit, the US elections and other instances, can be cited as examples. Indeed, why worry so much when monetary authorities provide such a great safety net? Their excess liquidity, resulting from low interest rate policies from major central banks and their asset purchase programs, certainly lower investor wariness. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q2 2017 Market Comment A cornerstone has been removed from the main consensual political risk scenario in place since last year. The relief generated by Emanuel Macron’s election, a leader in favour of Europe, and the success of his new party at the legislative vote support the markets and confirm the positive sentiment toward Europe and its economic recovery. Investors then failed to find something consistent enough to focus on. Bored by the US Trump “show”, the Brexit negotiations and hesitant in front of higher valuations, they finally drew their attention back to central banks and their apparent decision to tackle the issue of the enormous balance sheet. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q1 2017 Market Comment The stage is set for 2017 and may well produce “the decay of globalization”. The return of protectionism, re-industrialization willingness as well as business competitivity of countries through currency and taxe rivalries may jeopardize the strength of the globalization trend. Central banks are dethroned at the box office as the spotlights are now turned on political leaders who will be key on guiding the economic developments. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q4 2016 Market Comment “Donald Trump has been elected”. This would be a very tempting title for our last quarterly comment. Call it complacency or laziness, some have already been using the US elections as the only explanation for the positive trend we saw on the equity market and the impressive interest rates upward. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q3 2016 Market Comment Global markets delivered strong returns in Q3 and investors’ sentiment remained constructive despite numerous risks weighing increasingly on geopolitical stability, global growth and subsequently on financial markets. Indeed, the situation in Syria, which triggered a raise in diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, is far from being solved and continues to reshape the European political landscape through the migrant crisis favoring the raise of populist parties Download Report

SOUTH AFRICA – The Special Voluntary Disclosure Program (SVDP)

As taxpayers around the world gear up for the new global automatic exchange of information regime, South Africa is providing one last chance for individuals, South African trusts and companies to come clean and disclose foreign assets held in contravention of the relevant exchange control and tax laws. The aptly named Special Voluntary Disclosure Programme (SVDP), runs from 1 October 2016 to 31 March 2017. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q2 2016 Market Comment The temptation to summarize the second quarter in a single word is overwhelming. The so called “Brexit” was indeed a considerable point of focus of the markets, but the UK referendum concerning its European Union membership was not the only major event for the period. April started with the mediatized Panama Papers which put a lot of pressure on some political figures. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q1 2016 Market Comment The major themes that prevailed during the second half of 2015 have continued to dictate investors’ behavior in Q1 2016. Among these factors, the fears surrounding the softening of the Chinese economy and the difficulties encountered by the government to curb the volatility in its financial markets continued to impact risky assets. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q4 2015 Market Comment Emerging from a third quarter devastated by the Chinese stock market crash and its international repercussion, stressing the growth slowdown in the country, investors breathe again in the fourth one. Let’s take a step back and… then dive back in the markets favorite topic: Will the Fed finally perform their first rate hike after almost a decade and what will happen then? Download Report

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