Publications

Geneva Management Group

Many Sides to the Coin in Turkey’s Lira Crash These days the Turkish lira is very much an embattled currency. The past week alone saw it lose 25% of its value, priced 0.20 per $1USD in 1 week. This on top of the fact in the past year the lira has been the worst performing currency in global markets, ultimately dropping by over half its value in the last 12 months.   Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Commentary on the Mauritian Budget 2018/2019 The 2018/2019 Mauritian Budget speech (“the Budget speech”) was delivered on 14 June 2018 by the Minister of Finance and Economic Development for Mauritius, The Honorable Pravind Jugnauth. The budget speech referred to several proposed budgetary measures that may, once adopted into law, affect global businesses as we know it in Mauritius. The budget measures are subject to approval by the legislature. The first draft of the 2018 Finance Bill is expected to be issued during the month of July 2018.   Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q1 2018 Market Comment The first steps into 2018 were full of hope and some would say, rather naive. Encouraged by long-term momentum, a subdued level of volatility and the US fiscal stimulus, some investors were of the thought that nothing could derail this long-term upward trend we’ve experienced over the last couple of years. After all, as economists and asset managers constantly repeated throughout 2017, we are in a “synchronised growth” environment and obviously, the stars have aligned to support the notion that we’re getting the “best of all possible worlds”. At the risk of sounding like Voltaire and despite my deepest wish to be living in a preestablished order, the reality is that some risks were bound to resurface and it was merely a question of when. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q4 2017 Market Comment With 2017 already behind us, the final quarter saw the spotlight shift away from central bank headlines toward geopolitical matters mentioned in our very first comment of the year. The key question is: how long will this last? At the dawn of 2018, all investment banks communicate their outlooks and raise the obvious worries concerning higher US interest rates and the nearing end of quantitative easing measures from the ECB and the BoJ. Will it trigger the end of the goldilocks economy? Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q3 2017 Market Comment Since the 2008 crisis, excess liquidity provided by central banks has been a blessing to all financial and investment market actors. Restoring confidence was crucial in stopping the collapse of financial systems and has been a key support for economies trying to recover, while simultaneously giving time to countries to manage their unbalanced budgets. In recent years, a euphoric side effect has become apparent. Brexit, the US elections and other instances, can be cited as examples. Indeed, why worry so much when monetary authorities provide such a great safety net? Their excess liquidity, resulting from low interest rate policies from major central banks and their asset purchase programs, certainly lower investor wariness. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q2 2017 Market Comment A cornerstone has been removed from the main consensual political risk scenario in place since last year. The relief generated by Emanuel Macron’s election, a leader in favour of Europe, and the success of his new party at the legislative vote support the markets and confirm the positive sentiment toward Europe and its economic recovery. Investors then failed to find something consistent enough to focus on. Bored by the US Trump “show”, the Brexit negotiations and hesitant in front of higher valuations, they finally drew their attention back to central banks and their apparent decision to tackle the issue of the enormous balance sheet. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q1 2017 Market Comment The stage is set for 2017 and may well produce “the decay of globalization”. The return of protectionism, re-industrialization willingness as well as business competitivity of countries through currency and taxe rivalries may jeopardize the strength of the globalization trend. Central banks are dethroned at the box office as the spotlights are now turned on political leaders who will be key on guiding the economic developments. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q4 2016 Market Comment “Donald Trump has been elected”. This would be a very tempting title for our last quarterly comment. Call it complacency or laziness, some have already been using the US elections as the only explanation for the positive trend we saw on the equity market and the impressive interest rates upward. Download Report

Geneva Management Group

Q3 2016 Market Comment Global markets delivered strong returns in Q3 and investors’ sentiment remained constructive despite numerous risks weighing increasingly on geopolitical stability, global growth and subsequently on financial markets. Indeed, the situation in Syria, which triggered a raise in diplomatic tensions between the US and Russia, is far from being solved and continues to reshape the European political landscape through the migrant crisis favoring the raise of populist parties Download Report

SOUTH AFRICA – The Special Voluntary Disclosure Program (SVDP)

As taxpayers around the world gear up for the new global automatic exchange of information regime, South Africa is providing one last chance for individuals, South African trusts and companies to come clean and disclose foreign assets held in contravention of the relevant exchange control and tax laws. The aptly named Special Voluntary Disclosure Programme (SVDP), runs from 1 October 2016 to 31 March 2017. Download Report

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