Insights

Macro views & market analysis

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Complex times, simple strategy

The greater the complexity, the greater the need for agility. This truism applies to everything, including, of course, asset allocation and portfolio strategy.

SIX Swiss exchange and China

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The SIX Swiss Exchange is an interesting opportunity for Chinese companies and investors

Four Chinese companies issued GDRs in the Swiss capital market through the China-Switzerland Stock Connect…

Secular-inflation

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Secular inflation is the new normal — get ready

While the definition of secular inflation is simple, identifying the variables causing it and detecting the early signs of it are not…

Pocket of opportunity

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Pockets of Opportunity – Asset Allocation in Challenging Times

The global macroeconomic backdrop and outlook have become tremendously complex. Economies are moving at different speeds, some contacting or slowing while others are expanding…

Discover our latest asset class views

Read our latest thinking and see how we are positioning multi-asset class portfolios in light of our global macro strategy.

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NATO 2.0

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NATO 2.0 is disrupting markets worldwide, Eurozone investors should take note

The NATO Summit has concluded with one of the most extraordinary and divisive geopolitical developments in recent history…

central banks

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Central banks are likely to kill prosperity, not inflation

After completely getting the inflation forecast wrong, central banks are now apparently fully confident in getting it back down…

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The pursuit of lasting prosperity

In ancient and modern times, inflation has remained one of the policymakers’ most undesirable economic problems. Once entrenched, inflation can have broad negative…

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Calibrating portfolios in transformative times

Transformative times are what we live through today and for the foreseeable future. Investing and managing portfolios in such an environment requires a much more hands-on…

The Fed

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The Fed put has expired — time to hedge

The Fed put, the market’s expectation that the central bank will come to the aid of markets has been in place for decades. It’s the concept, belief…

transformative-times

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Portfolios need to be ‘ARMMD’ for the future

Bifurcation is creating new competing power blocs and altering the existing world economic order. Portfolios ‘ARMMD’…

Jerome Powell

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Is the Fed blinded by data?

Once dubbed ‘transitory’, the Fed’s aggressive action on inflation lacks consideration for supply-side issues…

Monetary policy

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Policy normalization is in motion but the pace won’t hold

The inflation outlook has changed dramatically. It has worsened, but no one knows for how long.

Solidarity

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Solidarity’s positive spillover

The recent developments in Ukraine are surprising, alarming, horrific. However near-global solidarity in support of Ukraine has also been a surprise.

Euro

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The euro currency’s future has become less certain

The significance of the recent horrific developments in Eastern Europe is difficult to fathom but easier to do when…

Uncertainty

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Divisions & Uncertainty

Before the war broke out in Ukraine, our Investment Committee concluded that global growth would decelerate faster, and that monetary policy tightening expectations…

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Great power blocs

Great power blocs are being formed more clearly and overtly with broad and far-reaching implications for investment portfolios.

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Ready Turbulence

Evidence of diverging economies and policies is becoming more apparent. Our four “Ds” concept in our 2022 outlook is materializing as global growth…

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The Great Transformation

Discover GMG’s investment outlook for 2022, which focuses on four major forces transforming the financial markets, investment landscape and our world more generally.

Transformation

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Forced, planned and unexpected transformation

In the year 2022 and beyond, we believe that the global economy and global markets will undergo forced…

Cosmic Complex

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The investment landscape is increasing in complexity

The subject of growing complexity in the investment landscape has been a frequent topic in our monthly…

US Federal Reserve

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Quality will prevail

Quality companies are likely to prevail in a more challenging economic environment highlighted in the October Beige Book report by the US central bank…

China-US Relations

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Geopolitical shifts, shifting portfolios

Many variables impact markets and investor behaviour. We find that it is increasingly important to analyse the implication of…

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Reflation convictions (video)

In this investment briefing, our CIO Belal Mohammed Khan summarises GMG’s view on relation and the company’s consequent positioning…

China and Swiss Flags

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Geopolitical shifts towards multipolarity

Recently, the geopolitical shifts towards multi-polarity have become more pronounced and visible. This is most evident in the US as well as…

Reflation

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Reflation Convictions

Reflation Convictions 25 August 2021 Market Insight by Belal Mohammed Khan When the consensus is wrong, markets tend to sharply adjust. Higher inflation is here […]

Jackson Hole

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Uneven Economies, Uneven Markets

Investor perception of market risk is likely to rise. This will be predominately driven by headline risk concerns emanating from…

Cybersecurity

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The magnitude of cybercrime

Data breaches can be expensive. A recent IBM report highlighted that the cost of a data breach in 2020 was standing at $3.86mio…

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The case for Japan

Startled by arcane corporate accounting and high valuations and spooked by the bubble of the late 80s when the Nikkei 225 topped 25% above today’s levels, international…

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The risk of rising interest rates

 While current market expectations for US inflation are around 2%, several factors point…

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Time to rebalance?

The progressive but strong post-pandemic economic rebound led by China towards the end of the year is the key feature of 2021 so far…

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Crypto: Too big to ignore?

Given the prominence gained by cryptocurrencies recently, we wanted to synthetize…

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Post-Coronavirus – What is the outlook for emerging markets?

At the beginning of 2020, asset managers looked set to take a bullish view on emerging markets…